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转:1月官方制造业PMI为49.4 降至3年多新低

发表于:2016-02-03

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2016年1月份中国制造业PMI为49.4%

  中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心发布的2016年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.4%,比上月下降0.3个百分点。从12个分项指数来看,同上月相比,除购进价格、从业人员2个指数有所上升外,其他各项指数均有所下降。其中,产成品库存、采购量、进口3指数下降较为明显,降幅超过了1个百分点。

  特约分析师张立群认为:“1月份PMI指数较上月下降0.3个百分点,表明经济增长仍有下行态势。生产经营活动预期指数小幅下降,采购量指数、原材料库存指数、进口指数、产成品库存指数等都有不同幅度下降,表明企业开年的市场预期普遍比较谨慎。新出口订单指数下降,表明出口困难仍然较大。但从分行业指数看,汽车、电气机械器材制造等7个行业PMI指数高于50%;食品、造纸印刷等7个行业PMI指数较上月提高,表明经济结构变化的积极因素在聚集中。考虑到前期稳增长政策效果的进一步显现,以及今年将部署的各项政策的预期效果,预计经济增长总体仍将呈现企稳态势。”

  生产指数为51.4%,比上月下降0.8个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型、中型企业生产指数高于50%,分别为52.6%、51.2%;小型企业低于50%,为46.3%。

  新订单指数为49.5%,比上月下降0.7个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业新订单指数高于50%,为51.3%;中型企业和小型企业低于50%,分别为48.4%和44%。

  新出口订单指数为46.9%,比上月下降0.6个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业、中型企业和小型企业新出口订单指数均低于50%,分别为46.9%、47.8%和42.7%。

  积压订单指数为43.4%,比上月下降0.2个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业、中型企业和小型企业积压订单指数均低于50%,分别为44.9%、42%和39.4%。

  产成品库存指数为44.6%,比上月下降1.5个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业、中型企业和小型企业产成品库存指数均低于50%,分别为44.5%、45.9%和42.5%。

  采购量指数为49%,比上月下降1.3个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业采购量指数高于50%,为50.6%;中型企业和小型企业低于50%,分别为48.2%和43.7%。

  进口指数为46.4%,比上月下降1.2个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业、中型企业和小型企业进口指数均低于50%,分别为46.4%、46.3%和47.9%。

  购进价格指数为45.1%,比上月上升2.7个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业、中型企业和小型企业购进价格指数均低于50%,分别为44.2%、46%和47.8%。

  原材料库存指数为46.8%,比上月下降0.8个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型企业、中型企业和小型企业的原材料库存指数均低于50%,分别为47.5%、46.7%和43.4%。

  从业人员指数为47.8%,比上月上升0.4个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型、中型和小型企业的从业人员指数均低于50%,分别为48.1%、48%和46.5%。

  供应商配送时间指数为50.5%,比上月下降0.2个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型、中型企业供应商配送时间指数高于50%,分别为50.7%、50.6%,小型企业低于50%,为49.1%。

  生产经营活动预期指数为44.4%,比上月下降0.2个百分点。从企业规模来看,大型、中型和小型企业生产经营活动预期指数均低于50%,分别为45.6%、43.5%和40.8%。

  表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数(经季节调整)

  单位:%


PMI生成新订单原材料库存从业人员供应商配送时间
2015年1月49.851.750.247.347.950.2
2015年2月49.951.450.448.247.849.9
2015年3月50.152.150.24848.450.1
2015年4月50.152.650.248.24850.4
2015年5月50.252.950.648.248.250.9
2015年6月50.252.950.148.748.150.3
2015年7月5052.449.948.44850.4
2015年8月49.751.749.748.347.950.6
2015年9月49.852.350.247.547.950.8
2015年10月49.852.250.347.247.850.6
2015年11月49.651.949.847.147.650.6
2015年12月49.752.250.247.647.450.7
2016年1月49.451.449.546.847.850.5

   表2 相关指标情况(经季节调整)   

  单位:%

订单新出口订单进口采购量主要原材料
购进价格
产成品库存在手订单生成经营 
活动预期
2015年1月48.446.449.641.9484447.4
2015年2月48.547.549.443.94743.854
2015年3月48.348.149.74548.644.161.3
2015年4月48.147.850.147.84843.859.5
2015年5月48.947.65149.447.544.756.8
2015年6月48.24850.947.347.744.652.2
2015年7月47.947.850.344.747.44452.9
2015年8月47.747.249.444.947.244.654.1
2015年9月47.948.148.645.846.843.853.9
2015年10月47.447.548.844.447.244.452.5
2015年11月46.446.748.341.146.74348.3
2015年12月47.547.650.342.446.143.644.6
2016年1月46.946.44945.144.643.444.4


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